The 2:00 Minute Warning

The supply chain news getting attention right now is the record-breaking jump in diesel prices. In just one week, per gallon diesel costs jumped 96 cents, marking the largest spike since the EIA started tracking this back in 1994. Along with this, fuel surcharges surged driving truckload rates up around 6% in the last week. 

So when a shipper called me and shared, “My freight budget is already blown and it’s only mid-March, so what do I do now?” that didn’t surprise me one bit.

In my experience, moments like this separate reactive organizations from disciplined operators who challenge themselves to do scenario planning. 

The current situation also challenges companies to find savings in other areas. The biggest savings opportunities aren’t in negotiating another point off a rate—they’re buried in the way freight actually moves through your organization. They come from taking another look at processes, decisions, habits, and areas where people assume “that’s just the way we do it.” That’s where we consistently see companies unlock meaningful savings—reaching 15% or more—without touching rates at all.

Back to the geopolitical tension around Iran and specifically the Strait of Hormuz—this isn’t just headline noise. It’s a real, immediate risk factor sitting underneath your transportation costs. If oil pushes toward $200 a barrel, freight budgets will face serious strain. 

And here’s the mistake I see too often: companies wait. They treat volatility like a passing storm instead of planning for it as a condition.

That’s where scenario planning comes in—and not the kind you do once a year and file away.

With the magnitude of this situation, companies should be actively modeling what happens over the next 3, 6, and 12 months if conditions worsen. Beyond looking at fuel, the ocean market is already reacting with carriers layering in risk premiums. Container costs could climb fast as surcharges stack up.

If you’re not scenario planning right now, it’s time to start.

Here’s are a few questions I’d suggest asking:
•             How sensitive is your network to fuel swings at different thresholds?
•             What happens to your landed costs if ocean surcharges increase 20% or more?
•             Where do you have process inefficiencies quietly adding cost every day?
•             Which levers can you realistically pull in the next 30–60 days?

Whether you ask these questions or others, now is the time to plan for different scenarios.

And let me be blunt: if a near-dollar jump in diesel in a single week doesn’t get your attention, I’m not sure what will. This is the moment to get serious about your freight strategy. Not after things settle down.

So if you are serious, get in touch, we can show you how to achieve savings of 15% or more. Give us a call at 630-833-0890, send us an email, or schedule a conversation.

On a lighter note—we hope you had a great St. Patrick’s Day.