If you’ve been in transportation for any length of time, you know truckload pricing moves in cycles. Shippers now need to prepare for the possibility that the next upswing could be a big one—or what some experts are calling a “super cycle.”
Since the early 2000s, we’ve experienced several truckload rate cycles. Previous increases reached 10% to 20%; during COVID, some reached 25% to 30%.
Could the next cycle push market increases beyond 30%? Yes. But the more important question is this: How much of that increase will your company actually have to absorb?
You may not be able to control where the truckload market is headed, but you can take steps now to reduce its impact on your transportation costs. And that starts with understanding what is happening inside the carrier community.
I routinely speak directly with CEOs of leading truckload and LTL carriers. Those CEO conversations give TranzAct firsthand intelligence about the pressures shaping the market, the capacity decisions carriers are making, and what shippers should be doing now. A consistent picture is emerging: regulatory and licensing changes are affecting driver capacity, the Great Freight Recession drove capacity out of the marketplace, and carriers face significant increases in insurance, equipment, and other operating costs.
As costs rise, capacity exits, and volumes strengthen, negotiating leverage shifts toward carriers—particularly the high-quality, dependable carriers every shipper wants hauling their freight.
We may already be seeing that shift. Tender acceptance rates have fallen from the low 90% range into the low 80% range. That means more freight shippers expected their carriers to accept is being rejected and pushed into the spot market—often at exactly the wrong time. In a tightening market, that can become expensive very quickly.
Truckload shippers now face an important decision: Will you react as carriers bring you rate increases, or will you build a sourcing and rate strategy designed to protect profitability, secure dependable capacity, and maintain customer service?
As capacity tightens, shippers with strong contractual relationships will hold an important advantage over those forced to chase capacity in the spot market. But this is not simply about finding the cheapest truck. Carrier quality, safety, compliance, service, and risk still matter.
Those CEO conversations also reinforce an important point: reducing transportation costs is about much more than negotiating a lower rate. TranzAct’s analytics expose savings opportunities hidden inside a shipper’s mode choices and everyday LTL and truckload practices.
Mode optimization can determine whether a shipment should move as truckload, LTL, volume LTL, a consolidated load, or another option. More effective truckload practices can improve trailer utilization, reduce partially filled loads, consolidate compatible shipments, and strengthen the use of contractual capacity. Better LTL practices can improve classification, packaging, shipment planning, consolidation, accessorial management, and carrier selection.
At TranzAct, we combine insights from our carrier CEO conversations with analytics, proprietary sourcing strategies, and practical LTL and truckload expertise. That combination helps shippers secure competitive rates while also changing the utilization, mode, and shipping decisions that determine total transportation cost.
In practical terms, TranzAct can help reduce the amount of a market increase your company ultimately absorbs while uncovering savings that do not depend on the market moving in your favor. And we do it without losing sight of the capacity, service, safety, and compliance your business depends on.
Companies that wait until increases arrive will negotiate from a very different position than companies that act now. Accepting whatever increase the market hands you does not have to be your strategy.
If your current approach is, “We’ll deal with higher rates when they arrive,” now is the time to put a more resilient strategy in place.
The TranzAct team can begin with a focused review of your transportation data, mode mix, LTL and truckload shipping practices, sourcing strategy, contractual and spot capacity, and exposure if rates rise 20%, 30%, or more. The objective is straightforward: use analytics to identify mode-optimization and shipping-practice savings while strengthening your position before the market turns.
When you’re ready, schedule a conversation with the TranzAct team.
Truckload rates may be going up. You can’t control that. But you can control how much your company absorbs—and whether you react after the increase or have a cost-reduction strategy in place before it arrives.
And with each and every Two Minute Warning, remember: we’re on your team, we’re here to help, and we’re passionate about seeing you be successful.