The 2:00 Minute Warning

At an industry conference last October, ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello shared a prediction for 2026: truckload demand may remain muted, meaning rate increases are unlikely to be demand-driven. Bottom Line: If truckload rates rise in 2026, it will most likely be caused by a contraction in supply—not a surge in demand. And there are credible signals that supply contraction is already underway.

What could tighten capacity in 2026?

1) Driver supply disruption - Increasing focus on driver compliance and qualification enforcement—including English language proficiency and CDL enforcement for non-residents — could reduce the driver by a couple of hundred thousand drivers in certain markets. Capacity tightening rarely hits evenly. It impacts specific lanes and geographies first, where shippers already have limited coverage or lower carrier flexibility.

2) Carrier attrition and risk tolerance - Carriers are continuing to exit as operating costs remain high and profitability stays compressed. A recent example: Davis Trucking in Florida announced it is shutting down after decades in business, citing continued lack of profitability and an unfavorable outlook. But the most revealing factor was risk: the owner described sending trucks out as “Russian Roulette” given today’s litigation environment and nuclear verdict exposure. That type of sentiment matters—because when carriers perceive outsized downside risk, capacity can exit the market faster than forecasts predict.

In 2026, supply chain professionals shouldn’t just ask: “Where do we think rates will land?” They should also ask: “What happens if the market moves faster than we’re ready for?”

A simple way to pressure-test your plan is to model scenarios. For example:

+5% truckload rate increase - manageable, but painful across core lanes

+10% increase - forces budget tradeoffs and service decisions

+20% increase - becomes a margin event, especially for network-heavy shippers.

The concern isn’t just higher rates.

The question to ask now is… If capacity tightens in 2026, do we have a resilient freight plan—or a fragile one? 

More specifically: 
- Where are we over-dependent on a small carrier group? 
- Which lanes have real backup capacity? 
- What is our exposure if rejection rates rise? 
- Are we managing carrier selection as a cost decision—or as a continuity decision? 

This is why we’ve consistently reinforced the value of scenario planning: in this market, a single forecast is not a strategy.

How TranzAct helps 

TranzAct’s Rapid Assessment helps leadership teams quickly identify exposure, model scenarios, and strengthen carrier strategy before conditions force reactive decisions. If you’d like, we can pressure-test your 2026 truckload strategy and help you build a plan that holds up under multiple outcomes.

If you’re interested in learning more about this Rapid Assessment, send us an email, give us a call at 630-833-0890, or schedule a conversation.