Most supply chain disruptions do not arrive with much warning, if any.
They unfold quickly, put pressure on costs almost immediately, and expose the difference between companies that planned ahead and those that did not. The current conflict involving Iran is doing exactly that.
Even for companies not directly moving freight through the region, the impact is already being felt. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, diesel prices rose from $3.90 on March 2 to $4.86 on March 9, 2026 — a one-week increase of 24.6%. For many shippers, that is translating into motor carrier fuel surcharges that are up at least 4% in a matter of days.
Few, if any, companies budgeted for that kind of increase. Fewer still had a clear plan in place for how they would respond if fuel moved that sharply, that fast. And fuel is only one of the issues leaders should be focused on now.
The Immediate Cost Is Fuel. The Larger Risk Is Exposure.
Fuel is the first and most visible signal. As geopolitical instability affects energy markets, transportation costs rise quickly across truckload, LTL, and other modes tied to diesel-based surcharge programs. But the broader lesson is not only about fuel.
Events like this create ripple effects across global freight markets. Risk rises. Markets tighten. Carrier behavior changes. Costs move. Lead times become less predictable. Service pressure follows. And companies already operating without margin for disruption are left making urgent decisions in real time.
That is when reactive supply chain management becomes expensive.
Most Companies Still Are Not Planning for Disruption
In TranzAct research conducted recently, fewer than 20% of companies said they regularly conduct supply chain stress testing or scenario planning. That number matters.
Because while no one can predict when the next disruption will occur, organizations can prepare for the kinds of conditions disruption creates: rising transportation costs, capacity shifts, network imbalances, sourcing constraints, and service risk.
The companies that respond best in moments like this are rarely the ones with the best intentions. They are the ones that took the time to ask hard questions before the disruption occurred.
What happens if fuel rises another 10%?
What happens if a key lane becomes constrained?
How quickly can we adjust routing, carriers, inventory positioning, or sourcing strategy?
What does this do to margin, service, and customer commitments if it lasts longer than expected?
Those are not theoretical questions anymore.
Scenario Planning Is No Longer Optional
For many organizations, scenario planning has been treated as something valuable but not urgent. Something to get to later. Something that sounds wise but is often pushed aside by the pressures of day-to-day execution.
That approach is getting harder to defend.
Today’s supply chains operate in an environment where geopolitical events, fuel volatility, labor disruptions, weather events, and shifting trade conditions can all move costs and service levels with very little notice. Ignoring that reality does not reduce the risk. It simply increases the chance that your organization will be forced to respond without a plan.
Stress testing and scenario planning do not eliminate uncertainty. But they do create readiness. They help companies identify vulnerabilities, pressure-test assumptions, model financial and operational impacts, and establish practical response options before decisions have to be made under pressure.
In other words, they help leaders move from reactive to proactive.
A More Resilient Supply Chain Starts Before the Crisis
This latest disruption is another reminder that resilience is not built in the moment. It is built beforehand.
Companies that take scenario planning seriously are better positioned to protect margins, maintain service, support customers, and make smarter decisions when conditions change. Those that do not are often left absorbing cost, chasing information, and reacting one decision at a time.
At TranzAct, we help companies develop practical scenario planning processes that strengthen supply chain resilience and improve preparedness for disruption.
Because the goal is not to predict every event. The goal is to be ready when one happens.
Let’s start the conversation.
📞 Call us at 630-833-0890
📧 Send us an email at solutions@tranzact.com
📅 Or schedule a conversation with Calendly
Because the next disruption isn’t a matter of if—it’s a matter of when. And the companies that prepare today will be the ones that stay ahead tomorrow.