The 2:00 Minute Warning

Several years ago I heard a presentation by a futurist and author Peter Schwartz that talked about the importance of scenario planning. The reason I have never forgotten that presentation is because Peter addressed the importance of scenario planning and never being afraid to ask the “What If” question.

Specifically, Peter talked about how Shell Oil company used the “What If” scenario planning techniques to anticipate and profit from what would happen if there was a sudden disruption in the oil/petroleum marketplace.

Why do I bring this up? Because now, more than ever, shippers need to be asking “What If” questions to protect their supply chains. For example, one “What If” that needs to be at the top of your list is: What if contract negotiations between the ILWU and the PMA go South and there are major disruptions at the West Coast Ports beginning in late June or July? How will this affect your supply chains?

If you’re wondering why you need to be asking this question, last week, two stories in the Journal of Commerce noted that the contract negotiations International Longshore and Warehouse Union at the West Coast ports will begin on May 12. I’ve been to enough conferences lately to believe that the outcome is seen as a coin toss, and there is a strong possibility that there will be some disruptions at the West Coast Ports.

The current contract will expire on June 30 and the failure to reach a new agreement could mean a slow down or complete halt in operations. In one article, Peter Tirschwell, Vice President for Maritime & Trade at IHS Markit, commented that “Sources close to West Coast labor negotiations say any result is possible — from a contract getting signed with little to no disruption to a meltdown lasting months to any scenario in between.”

In an interview we held with Peter about what’s happening in the ocean market last summer, he highlighted why the longshoreman have strong leverage and are one of the most powerful unions in the country. If there’s a slow down or shut down at the West Coast ports, it shouldn’t come as a surprise. That is why some shippers are already shifting cargo to the East coast or Gulf ports.

One of my favorite books is “Predictable Surprises: The Disasters You Should Have Seen Coming and How to Prevent Them” because it helps you to think about future events and how to prepare for these events.

To help you get an edge on dealing with transportation issues like these in advance, on April 19th at 11am CT we’re hosting a webinar called Navigating Your Supply Chain in Survival Mode.

During the webinar you’ll hear from:

• Shelley Simpson, Chief Commercial Officer & EVP at J.B. Hunt
• Jonathan Gold, VP, Supply Chain and Customs Policy at the National Retail Federation
• Geoffrey Muessig, EVP & CMO at Pitt Ohio

If you have not yet signed up for this webinar, I have a direct question for you: What if our panelists share advice that could have been pivotal for your supply chain? Don’t take the chance of missing out. Get signed up now!

If you’re not able to join the webinar live, don’t worry, we’ll send the recording to everyone who registers. And don't be surprised if this webinar is one of the best (if not THE best) you attend all year!

BY MIKE REGAN, CO-FOUNDER OF TRANZACT
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