The 2:00 Minute Warning

If you thought the Supreme Court ruling would close the book on tariffs, think again.

Yes, the Court struck down the IEEPA tariffs. However, alternative policy levers were available — and they were used quickly, as we noted in earlier webinars hosted with the National Industrial Transportation League (NITL) and CSCMP which are available on demand in our Resource Center.

The President invoked Section 122 of the Fair Trade Act, initially imposing a 10% blanket tariff, then increasing it to 15% two days later. These measures are slated for 150 days — and will almost certainly face court challenges.

1. The Environment Remains Fluid

While many country-specific tariffs were invalidated, Section 232 and 301 tariffs remain intact. The application of these tariffs is evolving as they review different items which could be subject to these costs, and now a broad Section 122 tariff is layered on top.

In the months to come, expect continued litigation, policy shifts, and volatility.

2. Refunds: The Line Is Already Forming

How will companies recover duties already paid?

At this point, the process remains undefined. Customs brokers we’ve spoken with cannot outline a clear administrative path and most expect prolonged litigation.

This week, FedEx filed suit to recover refunds owed to them. When we saw that, our reaction was simple: they may want to take a number.

With an estimated 2,000 cases already in motion, companies like Costco and many others have announced plans to pursue recovery as well. The refund line is already long — and getting longer.

3. Scenario Planning Is Now a Leadership Discipline

This tariff cycle reinforces a broader truth: geopolitical disruption has become a regular part of managing supply chain. Organizations should be modeling scenarios such as:
•    Section 122 tariffs expiring on schedule
•    Tariffs extended or increased
•    Court injunctions halting implementation
•    Refund litigation extending multiple years

The objective is not to predict policy. It is to protect margin, cash flow, and supply chain optionality. That means reassessing sourcing exposure, reviewing country-of-origin strategies, modeling Incoterm alternatives, evaluating cost-sharing strategies, and stress-testing import/export programs.

4. Don’t Let Tariffs Distract Too Much from Freight Market Signals

Tariffs matter, but they are not the only variable moving.

There is an important signal emerging in the truckload (TL) market: spot rates are rising. Historically, sustained spot rate increases are one of the earliest indicators that a freight recession — particularly in truckload — may be ending.

If that trend continues, contract TL rates may begin moving up as well. For shippers who have benefited from depressed contract pricing 
over the past cycle, this could mark an inflection point.

At the same time, opportunities remain on the LTL side. As we’ve noted in prior Two Minute Warnings, disciplined sourcing strategies can still produce meaningful savings.

TranzAct’s proprietary LTL sourcing methodologies are specifically designed to identify structural pricing improvements — not just one-time bid event savings, but durable cost advantages.

Volatility in Washington should not cause you to ignore market shifts in your freight portfolio.

5. A Practical Tool: TranzAct’s Tariff Management Rapid Assessment

In volatile environments, disciplined analysis and preparation is a better approach than reactive moves.
TranzAct’s Tariff Management Rapid Assessment is designed to quickly quantify exposure and identify actionable mitigation strategies. 

The assessment focuses on:
•    Gross profit and duty impact modeling
•    Cash flow implications
•    Inventory and working capital alignment
•    Import/export structural alternatives
•    Cost-sharing and negotiation strategies

From there, we build a tailored Tariff Management Plan to protect profitability and increase agility.

What Comes Next

We are coordinating with our partners at NITL and CSCMP to host a follow-up webcast. However, there are still too many moving parts — pending litigation, evolving tariff levels, and unclear refund mechanics — to host a session that would provide the level of clarity you deserve. Our goal is to deliver insight, not speculation. We will share details as soon as we lock down the date and time and the landscape becomes better defined.

The Road Ahead

This is not a passive moment. If you have material import exposure — or meaningful freight spend — now is the time to:
•    Quantify tariff impact
•    Pressure-test sourcing and pricing assumptions
•    Prepare for potential TL rate firming
•    Identify LTL optimization opportunities
•    Protect margin and cash flow

Although the policy environment may remain unsettled, your strategy shouldn’t.

If you would like to evaluate your exposure through TranzAct’s Tariff Management Rapid Assessment — or discuss TL and LTL positioning — let’s schedule time.

Early, disciplined action creates options. 

Options create advantage.