Things are changing fast.
And that is exactly why scenario planning is no longer optional.
Earlier today, we had an outstanding webcast with our friends at CSCMP and the NIT League featuring renowned supply chain expert Yossi Sheffi. We talked about the role of scenario planning in building a more resilient supply chain, and the message was clear: if companies are not scenario planning right now, they are putting themselves in a reactive position at exactly the wrong time.
Now, after talking about scenario planning, we have heard something back from many shippers that is both fair and important.
They have said, “Mike, scenario planning would be a lot easier if we had a better idea of what is headed our way in the freight markets.”
Fair enough.
So in this Two Minute Warning, I want to focus on one specific part of the market: the truckload market.
And here is what we believe is coming.
It appears that the historic freight recession that began in 2022 is coming to an end. Capacity is tightening. Carrier leverage is beginning to return. And based on what we are seeing in the financial reports of larger publicly traded truckload carriers, along with what we heard from experts at the Food Shippers Conference, we believe shippers should be preparing for truckload rate increases in the range of 7% to 10% over the balance of 2026.
And that number is important.
Because it does not include the sizable additional cost pressure that could come from fuel surcharges.
That is a separate issue, and it could become a very serious one.
So let me give you the real scenario-planning question:
- What happens if oil goes to $200 a barrel?
- What happens to fuel surcharges?
- What happens to transportation budgets?
- What happens to margins?
- What happens to sourcing decisions, customer commitments, and the overall design of your supply chain?
That is what scenario planning is for.
It is not about predicting the future perfectly. It is about preparing intelligently for the range of outcomes that could hit your business next.
So why do we think truckload rates are going up?
Not because demand is booming. The real issue is supply.
Carriers have been going out of business. Capacity has been leaving the market. And on top of that, the Department of Transportation’s enforcement efforts around CDL issuance to non-resident drivers could put even more pressure on the available driver pool.
That matters. Because when supply contracts, rates can go up even if the economy is only moving sideways. And the warning signs are already there. Market data is showing rising load activity, limited truck postings, and a widening imbalance between demand and available capacity.
In plain English, the market is tightening before many shippers are ready for it.
And that is why this is not the time to wait and see.
This is the time to ask:
What happens if rates rise 7% to 10%?
What happens if fuel surcharges jump dramatically?
What happens if oil makes a serious move higher?
With the market tightening, rates moving up and fuel being a wild card, what does your transportation/freight budget look like for the remainder of 2026? And what will it look like if oil makes another serious move. You might want to let your CEO and CFO, the cost impact could be dramatic and change some of your sales and procurement practices.
That is why now is not the time to improvise. It is time to scenario plan.
And it is also a very good time to call TranzAct.
Our team of sourcing experts is helping shippers work through these questions right now. We are helping companies manage rates, reduce costs, think through sourcing options, and prepare practical responses before the market forces them into reactive decisions.
We have also prepared a truckload market infographic based on recent conference insights and market analysis, and we would be happy to send it to you upon request.
So if you would like to talk through what these market changes could mean for your transportation strategy, give us a call.
We would be glad to help.
To get in touch, give us a call at 630-833-0890, send us an email, or schedule a conversation.