The 2:00 Minute Warning

In our recent series of Two Minute Warnings, we offered our annual guidance and advice on budgeting your freight costs for the upcoming year. Year after year, it’s one of our more popular series.

After this year’s series, we received interesting feedback and questions. Many of these comments and questions asked us to “separate the wheat from the chafe.” Specifically, while the Two Minute Warnings cover a myriad of issues in the transportation and logistics sector, our readers wondered what are the top issues shippers should focus on in 2026.

Let’s dive right in.

First, watch for rate volatility in the truckload market.

With the historic freight recession now in its fourth year, the question is when – not if, the freight market will recover and allow the truckload carriers to get the type of rate increases they need to cover rising costs. Expenses like insurance are going through the roof, the cost of equipment is going up, and general operating costs are also increasing.

At NIT League’s annual summit in October, the ATA’s Chief Economist, Bob Costello noted that demand will likely remain soft for much of 2026, there will have to be a contraction in supply for the TL carriers to pass along rate increases. That may very well occur if financial issues cause more carriers to shut down and the government’s focus on the English Language Proficiency Act and the regulations for CDLs to non-residents reduces the supply of truck drivers.

With that thought in mind, pay attention to the rates in the TL spot market and tender acceptance rates for carriers. Check out publications like FreightWaves and the Journal of Commerce and if you see spot rates going up and tender acceptance rates going down, look for TL carriers to be more aggressive in seeking rate increases.

Second, look at what’s going on in the LTL sector. 

During our panel discussion at the Journal of Commerce’s Inland conference, I highlighted three things that will likely impact the LTL market in 2026.

1. The experts all agree that the FedEx Freight spinoff (likely to occur by June or July of 2026) will have an impact on the LTL market. That said, few if any have predicted what that impact will be. But as the largest LTL carrier in the market, their actions could affect other large LTL carriers.
2. A portion of the Yellow Terminal network is being brought back online as LTL carriers like XPO, Saia, and Estes reopen these facilities. With demand remaining relatively soft, this creates opportunities when it comes to negotiating rates with your LTL carriers.
3. On July 19, 2025, the National Motor Freight Classification (NMFC®) was updated. It affects thousands of less-than-truckload (LTL) commodities and could affect your LTL freight costs.

Add it all up and in 2026, shippers may be able to use the volatility in the LTL market to work collaboratively with their LTL carriers to actually lower their LTL costs. TranzAct has years of experience in helping shippers navigate the freight markets and lower their freight costs using our expertise, data, tools and proprietary sourcing processes.

Based on current market conditions, we recommend that you have TranzAct benchmark your LTL rates and take advantage of this window of opportunity right now to explore various options and lower your costs. 

Third, pay attention to the outcome of the Supreme Court trial about IEEPA tariffs.

There’s a lot riding on the Supreme Court decision. If the IEEPA tariffs are ruled unconstitutional, the government could have to refund billions of dollars. How will it affect the economy or your company? Consider scenario planning where you address the “what if” questions.

If you need help with this, talk to us about our Rapid Assessment processes. Through this exercise we can get different areas of your company together to create a better understanding of your options when it comes to tariffs or other supply chain concerns.

To learn more, send me an email, give us a call, or let’s get together via Calendly.

BY MIKE REGAN, CO-FOUNDER OF TRANZACT

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