As we head into 2026, shippers would like to believe that things will be “relatively calm” in the freight marketplace.
So, they really want to think that:
- Finding capacity will not be an issue.
- Container rates will be lower.
- The tariff situation will be resolved.
- There will be peace and harmony in supply chains and a drama free 2026.
But we live in the real world where supply chain disruptions have become the norm rather than the exception. That is why we have used these Two Minute Warnings to encourage shippers to draft a written annual supply chain plan and use scenario planning exercises to periodically consider the “What if?” questions.
For example, we recently shared that Bob Costello, the ATA’s Chief Economist, noted that rates in the truckload market will likely remain flat in 2026 UNLESS there is a contraction in supply (via carriers going out of business or facing a driver shortage). Some shippers may hear that and conclude they have nothing to worry about in securing truckload capacity at a reasonable rate.
However, other shippers may look at the market and ask, “What if…?” As in:
What if certain regulatory changes result in the loss of 8-10% of the truck drivers in the United States? How would that impact shippers’ truckload rates?
While that may sound unlikely, we’re seeing people like Craig Fuller from FreightWaves highlight why that could occur.
In his presentation at the National Industrial Transportation League Summit, Costello noted that the impact of the new guidelines for issuing CDLs to non-residents, along with the English Language Proficiency Act, could cause 600,000 drivers to leave the market. That represents approximately 9% of the driver population in the United States, which if that were to occur would definitely tighten supply and result in higher TL rates. Let me know if you would like a copy of Bob’s presentation.
UPS recently announced they will be laying off 40,000 employees. What if that impacts their ability to provide next day/2nd day service to your customers at a reasonable cost?
What if the spin-off of FedEx Freight forces you to change your LTL carrier network?
There is no shortage of “What if?" questions that companies should be asking to protect their supply chains. If you’re interested in getting ahead of the pack, you’re going to have to be comfortable asking, “What if?” You also need to know what needs to happen if the answer to the question for you is, “I don’t know.”
Companies who do not know the answer and don’t seek help will constantly be in reaction mode—always putting out fires. On the other hand, strategic companies who aren’t afraid to ask for help will be proactive and engage in supply chain scenario planning exercises that will help them outpace the competition.
If you’re not sure what scenarios lie ahead, call your friends here at TranzAct. With our Supply Chain Rapid Assessment process, we have several ways of helping companies look at potential vulnerabilities and create risk mitigation strategies.
We can apply our expertise, as well as the right tools like our Constellation TMS, to make you a proactive, successful shipper.
To learn more, send us an email, give us a call, or schedule a time to meet with Calendly.
