The 2:00 Minute Warning

Our recent Two Minute Warnings have focused on some of the changes ahead in the transportation market in 2026.

Over the past couple of months I have given presentations, written articles, and been a guest on radio interviews, and noted that 2026 will be “bifurcated,” or a year of separation, among shippers. Specifically, strategic shippers who follow the markets, listen to what the carriers are saying, and take advantage of technology will be able to lower their costs and beat their competitors. Transactional or tactical shippers who cling to the status quo and operate in a “business as usual” manner will see their costs go up.

We’ve seen many questions about this topic and here are the two most common ones: 
•    What further changes will shippers likely see in 2026?
•    How will these changes affect my logistics and supply chain operations?

Here are a few specific tips to consider. When shippers can anticipate the future, it is easier to plan for that future.

First, stay on top of the headlines about the freight markets.

In 2025, UPS announced that they have reduced headcount by 48,000, closed daily operations at 93 leased and owned buildings in the first nine months of 2025, and look to close more as part of their "Network Reconfiguration and Efficiency Reimagined." Will it affect their operations? Well, the recent announcement that UPS is destroying thousands of packages due to incomplete information and is experiencing significant delays in custom due to the elimination of the de minimis rules hasn’t inspired confidence.

We also recently learned that in 2026 there will be a renewed focus on enforcing the English Language Proficiency Act and confirming the validity of CDLs issued to non-residents. This could reduce the population of truck drivers by approximately 600,000, or 9%. If this happens, expect reduced availability and higher rates. 


Second, pay attention to what LTL and truckload carriers are saying.

One of things that I do on an ongoing basis is listen to the analyst calls and read the financial data where carriers report their quarterly and annual financial results and announce their intentions. Right now, virtually every major LTL and TL carrier has announced that they will be laser focused on reducing costs and maximizing revenue. No surprises there, but they are also sharing that they now have the right data to make better decisions about where to cut costs and increase their revenues.

What does that mean for your company? Despite the fact that there is a soft market, we’re now seeing small general rate increases. According to an article by FreightWaves, several carriers issued the following GRIs for certain tariff codes:

•    ABF Freight - 5.9% GRI effective Aug. 4
•    Saia - 5.9% GRI effective Oct.1
•    Old Dominion Freight Line - 4.9% GRI effective Nov. 3
•    FedEx Freight - 5.9% GRI (6.9% in Mexico) effective Jan. 5

These increases could set the pace for other LTL carriers. Take note though: These rates are negotiable. With TranzAct’s proprietary sourcing process and “best in class” LTL rating and tariff technology TranzAct has been able to actually lower LTL costs for shippers as we work collaboratively with carriers. This collaborative approach enables shippers to lower the carriers “cost to serve” numbers and procure more cost-effective rates.

Third, take a look at the tools you have and ask: Are they helping me or hurting me? 

One critical priority for shippers is finding ways to eliminate waste, which can involve automating the deployment of new practices or improving existing processes. This is where tools like TranzAct’s Constellation TMS are incredibly valuable. Not only can we select, tender and track carriers – we can give you great information that can help you work together with the carriers to lower your costs.

These are a few top considerations for 2026. If you’re interested in learning more about how you can lower your costs and improve your supply chain, send us an email, give us a call, or schedule a time to meet with Calendly.