The 2:00 Minute Warning

How do you manage risks you haven’t seen—or haven’t yet considered?

I bring this up because I recently co-hosted a five-part series on decision-making with Dr. Vicki Medvec, a renowned expert on negotiation and strategic decision-making. During that series, Vicki shared a conversation she once had with a CEO about risk.

That CEO said he wasn’t averse to making decisions or taking risks on things his company could see, study, and thoughtfully consider. What he didn’t want was to discover—after the fact—that his company had been exposed to risks it could not, had not, or did not see. Those are the risks that tend to result in costly, disruptive, and unprofitable surprises.

As we head into 2026, this distinction matters more than ever. There are a number of important supply chain and logistics issues that can clearly be seen in most companies’ supply chains today—issues that elevate both risk exposure and resiliency challenges. The question for leadership teams is whether those risks are being intentionally addressed.

That’s where scenario planning becomes critically important.

While scenario planning won’t eliminate the potential impact from true “Black Swan” events—last weekend’s developments in Venezuela are a good example—it is highly effective in helping executive teams prepare for how known and emerging issues in the freight markets are likely to affect costs, service levels, and supply chain capabilities.

Here are a few areas where scenario planning can create real executive-level insight.

Truckload
The truckload freight recession continues, and capacity is steadily leaving the market. If that trend continues, capacity will tighten and carriers will regain pricing power. How high could rates go? No one knows. But leadership teams should be asking what a 5%, 10% or even 20% increase in truckload rates would mean for margins, pricing strategies, and customer commitments in 2026.

LTL
Significant changes are underway. With FedEx Freight’s planned spin-off later this year, continued NMFC changes that move towards density based pricing, and parts of the old Yellow terminal network coming back on stream as carriers like XPO, Saia and Estes reopen Yellow terminals and expand capacity, there are important sourcing strategies to consider. If shippers ignore these strategies, they will be at a disadvantage when their LTL talk about restructuring rates. Scenario planning helps executive teams separate opportunity from exposure and determine where intervention is required.

Rail & Intermodal 
What happens with the proposed Union Pacific–Norfolk Southern merger? With a formal application now filed and other railroads pushing back, the outcome is uncertain. Different scenarios could materially affect pricing, service reliability, and network access—each with different implications for shippers.

Ocean
Will vessels return to transiting the Red Sea and the Suez Canal? How will ocean carriers handle declining volumes in the important Trans-Pacific lanes? Today, conditions appear relatively favorable for shippers. But global events can shift quickly, and leadership teams know how fast favorable conditions can reverse.

There is much more we could cover—including parcel issues and supply chain security and cargo theft risks—but we’ll stop there.

Scenario planning isn’t about predicting the future. It’s about ensuring your organization is not taking risks unknowingly—and that leadership teams are aligned on how to respond when conditions change.

If you’d like to explore this further, TranzAct’s Supply Chain Edge Group’s Supply Chain Scenario Planning Program has proven to be a very effective way to get leadership and operating teams on the same page around best-in-class practices for protecting your supply chain.

If you’re interested in learning more, let’s have a conversation. Send us an email, give us a call at 630-833-0890, or—better yet—set up a one-on-one discussion via Calendly.