With just nine weeks until the final day of 2025, we’ve been hearing from our audience about what items they should watch as they march into the upcoming year.
Having attended a bunch of transportation and supply chain events over the past six weeks, I’ve had the opportunity to hear from analysts and senior supply chain executives about how they see 2026 playing out for shippers.
For example, as we noted in a recent Two Minute Warning, at the National Industrial Transportation League’s recent Annual Summit, Bob Costello, the Chief Economist for the American Trucking Associations gave his forecast on what 2026 is likely to look like for carriers. In a word, the presentation was sobering.
According to Mr. Costello, the great freight recession, which is now more than forty months old, will continue into 2026. Truckload rates are forecasted to be soft. If, and that is a big if, truckload rates go up for carriers it will be because of a contraction in supply as opposed to an increase in demand.
That said there are some issues which could cause the supply of trucks to decrease. How will that happen? First of all, there’s the English Language Proficiency Act which could eliminate 40,000 – 50,000 drivers based on how states enforce this provision. Second, the issue of non-residents holding an invalid commercial drivel license (CDL) could result in as many as 500,000 drivers being taken off the road, depending on how the states enforce the DOT’s order.
It is estimated that there are approximately 6.5 to 7 million CDLs in the United States. If the driver population shrinks by as much as 6% to 8%, shippers could see capacity tighten and rates rising.
When it comes to the LTL market, rates could rise in certain areas despite market softness. With 2026 soon ahead, the LTL carriers are starting to issue their GRIs. As Old Dominion and FedEx announced GRIs in the 5% range, other LTL carriers are likely to issue similar ones.
However, it’s important to remember that the rate increases are negotiable. And that is why at the Journal of Commerce’s Inland Distribution Conference, I noted while speaking on a panel that 2026 will be a bifurcated year for shippers. Some shippers will continue to conduct business as usual and see their freight costs go up. Other shippers will search for and find opportunities to lower costs, and that's where we can help.
For example, as LTL rate experts, TranzAct’s proprietary sourcing methodology has been very successful in helping shippers work collaboratively with their carriers to reduce their LTL costs by as much as 15%. And TranzAct’s Constellation Transportation Management System has proven to be an effective tool in automating the carrier selection and tendering process and providing shippers with accurate data that creates a different and more effective dialogue with their carriers.
If you are interested in seeing what kind of savings are available in your parcel, LTL and TL areas, TranzAct’s Rapid Assessments and benchmarking capabilities are a great first step on the journey to realizing significant savings. To find out what is possible, let’s talk. Send me an email, give us a call, or let’s get together via Calendly.