As we move into the second month of the year, the freight market feels a bit like standing on a foggy highway at dawn. The road ahead is there—you just can’t quite see how far it stretches, or what’s coming around the bend.
Signals are flashing, though.
Last week’s gas index report for the fourth quarter confirmed what many shippers and carriers have been feeling for some time: demand remains soft. Several industry analyses tied this directly to the freight recession that began back in the second or third quarter of 2022—and now, those same indicators suggest it could linger well into 2026.
The Road Ahead for Truckload Carriers
As we’ve noted earlier, Bob Costello, Chief Economist at the American Trucking Associations, shared his outlook at the NITL conference that another tough year is likely for carriers. According to Costello, meaningful rate increases will only materialize if supply contracts significantly. And now, for the first time in a while, we’re seeing hints that this might actually be happening.
Carriers are exiting the market. Driver availability is tightening. Regulatory pressures are increasing, including the Department of Transportation’s renewed focus on English Language Proficiency requirements and CDL rules for non-domiciled drivers. Together, these forces are quietly reshaping capacity.
The question becomes: Will 2026 be the year the freight recession finally recedes—or just another year of waiting?
LTL: A Market in Transition
The LTL sector brings its own set of uncertainties.
On one hand, the return of former Yellow terminals could expand capacity in meaningful ways. On the other, the upcoming FedEx Freight spin-off introduces a new variable that could shift competitive dynamics. Layer in the delayed impact of NMFC changes, and it’s clear this market is anything but settled.
By year’s end, will carriers be in a stronger pricing position or fighting margin pressure?
Ocean, Rail, and the Global Wild Cards
Internationally, many eyes are on an upcoming Supreme Court decision related to tariffs. While a ruling could disrupt shipping patterns, it’s unlikely to be the final word. Alternative tariffs or trade measures would likely emerge if country-specific tariffs were overturned.
Rail and intermodal freight present another puzzle. Demand has been slowing, but potential growth drivers are on the horizon, such as a manufacturing rebound or increased energy demand. Whether those forces have a meaningful impact remains to be seen.
Planning for a Market That Refuses to Sit Still
A rigid, single-path forecast isn’t a good fit for a rapidly changing environment. Instead, shippers need scenario planning—the ability to model multiple futures and pivot quickly as conditions change. And at the heart of effective scenario planning is trustworthy data.
This is exactly why we’ve invested so heavily in our freight audit and payment system. While it delivers savings through audit accuracy and built-in controls, perhaps its greatest value lies in the data itself.
With the right data, you can ask better questions:
• What levers could we pull if capacity tightens?
• Where are we exposed if rates shift suddenly?
• How do we stay proactive instead of reacting after the market moves?
Turning Uncertainty Into Advantage
At TranzAct, we don’t believe uncertainty has to be a disadvantage. Alongside our audit and payment platform, we offer powerful tools like Telescope, our data analytics solution, and Constellation TMS, as well as targeted assessments designed to uncover opportunities hiding in plain sight.
Taken together, these tools help shippers not just navigate change—but get ahead of it. If you’d like to see how better data can support your planning, explore real-world examples, or simply talk through what 2026 might look like for your operations, that’s worth a conversation.
To get in touch, send us an email, give us a call at 630-833-0890, or schedule a meeting.